Last year, one of my favourite books was ‘Thinking in Bets’ by Annie Duke. The author is a world class poker player, and she does an excellent job of walking an uneducated reader like me through the finer points of poker, and how the game is so much more than a deck of cards, or the sort of gibberish you watch in ‘Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels’. I had no idea.
However the genius of the book is the lessons she draws from her experiences with poker for the rest of life. Her central thesis is that ‘people’ have a tendency to see life like chess. That is, a game with pieces, all of which have very clear and strict roles on where and how they can move, and with clear rules. People who play the game well learn to recognize patterns as well as strategise several moves ahead, and win through a combination of the two. And so it is with life. We all have our roles, and we are aware of the rules – work hard, keep your head down and you might just get to die with dignity.
According to Annie, not so much. She sees life as a game of poker with a range of probabilities. To some this will be disturbing. How many times, especially these days, do we hear that ‘markets dislike uncertainties’ like there is anything else in life ?! However, Annie is not saying that a life based on probabilities and outcomes is chaotic. If anything, I find her thesis to be the opposite, and seems to have much in common with the dreaded ‘Growth Mindset’ – that is, nothing if life is fixed. There are a range of outcomes, some of which are more probable than others. But anyone familiar with American and British politics or even the tv show Billions, will know that ‘successful’ people don’t take the world as fixed, with clear roles and rules. Quite the opposite.
So a world based on probabilities is a world of possibilities. Personally (and especially right at this moment) I take a lot of comfort in that thought, and I am in the midst of playing the hand I’ve been dealt in the best way possible to positively influence the outcome to the place I have in my head.
I invite you to join me.
PS.Anyone who doesn’t have the time to read or listen to the whole book should read this excellent summary